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Sept 2022 – Columbia Gorge Real Estate Market

Brett Stomps
As expected, the market is slowing down as we head into winter. The data shows we're in a neutral market. Days on market is up 100% from last year, so you really know the market has shifted away from low rates and fast turnover!

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September 2022 is a Seller’s market!

In September, the Columbia Gorge real estate market saw the number of for sale listings up 35.7% from one year earlier, and down 4.9% from the previous month. The number of sold listings decreased 17.1% year over year and decreased 15.5% month over month. Under contract listings was down 7.4% compared to previous month and down 25.6% compared to previous year. The Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales is 2.9, up 62.4% from the previous year.

The Average Sold Price per Square Footage was down 8% compared to previous month and up 2.5% compared to last year. The Median Sold Price decreased by 1.1% from last month. The Average Sold Price also decreased by 13.2% from last month. Based on the 6 month trend, the Average Sold Price trend is “Depreciating” and the Median Sold Price trend is “Depreciating”.

The Average Days on Market showed a upward trend, an increase of 100% compared to previous year. The ratio of Sold Price vs. Original List Price is 94%, a decrease of 6% compared to previous year.

Read our: Real Estate Market Q3 Nationwide Review for an expanded market view.

For Sale / Sold / Pended

Property Sales (Sold)

September property sales were 87, down 17.1% from 105 in September of 2021
and 15.5% lower than the 103 sales last month.

Current Inventory (For Sale)

Versus last year, the total number of properties available in the Columbia Gorge this month is higher by 66 units or 35.7%. This year’s bigger inventory means that buyers who waited to buy may have bigger selection to choose from. The number of current inventory is down 4.9% compared to the previous month.

Property Under Contract (Pended)

There was a decrease of 7.4% in the pended properties in September, with 87 properties versus 94 last month. This month’s pended property sales were 25.6% lower than at this time last year.

Average Sold Price per Square Foot

The Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a great indicator for the direction of property values. Since Median Sold Price and Average Sold Price can be impacted by the ‘mix’ of high or low end properties in the market, the Average Sold Price per Square Footage is a more normalized indicator on the direction of property values. The September 2022 Average Sold Price per Square Footage of $288 was down 8% from $313 last month and up 2.5% from $281 in September of last year.

*Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral

Days on Market / Sold to List Price Ratio

The Days on Market Shows Upward Trend*

The average Days on Market (DOM) in the Columbia Gorge shows how many days the average property is on the market before it sells. An upward trend in DOM trends to indicate a move towards more of a Buyer’s market, a downward trend indicates a move towards more of a Seller’s market. The DOM for September 2022 was 46, up 35.3% from 34 days last month and up 100% from 23 days in September of
last year.

The Sold/Original List Price Ratio is Falling**

The Sold Price vs. Original List Price reveals the average amount that sellers are agreeing to come down from their original list price. The lower the ratio is below 100% the more of a Buyer’s market exists, a ratio at or above 100% indicates more of a Seller’s market. This month Sold Price vs. Original List Price of 94% is down 2.1% % from last month and down from 6% % in September of last year’s real estate market.

* Based on 6 month trend – Upward/Downward/Neutral
** Based on 6 month trend – Rising/Falling/Remains Steady

Average Sale / Sold / Median Sold

The Average For Sale Price is Neutral*

Looking at the Average For Sale Price in September, this was $692,000, down 1.8% from $705,000 in September of 2021 and down 1.4% from $702,000 last month.

The Average Sold Price is Depreciating*

Regarding the Average Sold Price in September, this was $506,000, down 2.7% from $520,000 in September of 2021 and down 13.2% from $583,000 last month.

The Median Sold Price is Depreciating*

The Median Sold Price in September was $435,000, down 4.4% from $455,000 in September of 2021 and down 1.1% from $440,000 last month.

*Based on 6 month trend – Appreciating/Depreciating/Neutral

Months in Inventory Closed / Pended

A comparatively lower Months of Inventory is more beneficial for sellers while a higher months of inventory is better for buyers.

  • Buyer’s market: more than 6 months of inventory
  • Seller’s market: less than 3 months of inventory
  • Neutral market: 3 – 6 months of inventory

Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales

The September 2022 Months of Inventory based on Closed Sales of 2.9 was increased by 62.4% compared to last year and up 11.7% compared to last month. September 2022 is Seller’s market.

Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales

The September 2022 Months of Inventory based on Pended Sales of 2.9 was increased by 82.2% compared to last year and up 3.6% compared to last month. September 2022 is Seller’s market.

Absorption Rate on Closed / Pended Sales

Absorption Rate measures the inverse of Months of Inventory and represents how much of the current active listings (as a percentage) are being absorbed each month.
  • Buyer’s market: 16.67% and below
  • Seller’s market: 33.33% and above
  • Neutral market: 16.67% – 33.33%

Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales

The September 2022 Absorption Rate based on Closed Sales of 34.7 was decreased by 38.9% compared to last year and down 11% compared to last month.

Absorption Rate based on Pended Sales

The September 2022 Absorption Rate based on Pended Sales of 34.7 was decreased by 45.1% compared to last year and down 2.5% compared to last month.

All reports are published October 2022, based on data available at the end of September 2022, except for the today’s stats. All reports presented are based on data supplied by the RMLS. Neither the Association nor its MLS guarantees or is in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Association or its MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Advice for Buyers

If Buying a Home or Buying Land is still on your to-do list, there are still creative ways to be buying in Columbia Gorge real estate market as we head into the Winter.

For the financed buyers out there, I understand it’s a tough and scary market out there. I’m here to address your fears with data, and the data is showing that federal government is trying to combat rising home prices. Of course, this is contradictory when rates raise and the cost of getting a loan increases. Do not give up though, housing in the Columbia gorge will maintain it’s value far better than other markets with larger supply. Look into creative financing options such as the following:

If you’re a cash buyer, you won’t be affected by increasing interest rates. However, the same old saying continues today for you: It’s time spent in the market, not timing the market the really counts. If you can swing the payments or have a rental pay for itself, real estate is always a great hedge against inflation and also deflation when home supply is low and demand high.

Advice for Sellers

As we head into winter, we see our usual seasonal drop in the Columbia Gorge real estate market. This decline will iced even further as rates include to limit buyers. Be ready to sit on the market longer and to potentially lower your price as expectations from 2020 and 2022 selling markets slow dramatically. Instead, look at the equity that you have today and what you have gained since ownership and ask yourself: How much do I need to get to where I want to go if I Sell my Home? Having a clear budget on the buying side will help you, and hopefully you can sell your home before you lose too much value during this correction.

If waiting out the market is your plan, there’s discussion around an up-tick in the spring as we usually see, but keep an eye on interest rates and perceived buyer demand. This current interest rate correction has created a lot of pause for buyers as they wait for rates to drop again in spring, but there’s simply no guarantee that it will. The risk today is, will home prices still be stifled by rates throughout 2023? And how far will we drop from now until then?

Conclusion

As usual, each individual scenario is different. Contact Me today to discuss what your best options are and how we can get you where you want to go both in the short term and in the long term. My job is to help you get there in the best possible way. It’s us vs. the market.

Click here for more: Columbia Gorge Real Estate Market Updates